MONSOON 2016 FORECAST

Monsoon 2016 forecast: India to have excess to heavy rainfall, predicts IMD

India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday released southwest monsoon forecast for 2016. IMD said that 94 per cent of more than excess to heavy rainfall is predicted for this year. The weather department said that relief is expected after two years of deficit rainfall. IMD official said that southwest monsoon is lifeline of Indian subcontinent and good distribution of rainfall is expected this year. The country is expected to receive 6 per cent more rainfall than last year.

This year monsoon will be above normal. 

Due to scanty rainfall, food production was low in the past two years. Drought situations in almost 11 states in India made lives difficult for farmers challenging their livelihood. However, with IMD’s prediction on average rains, it seems that farmers can heave a sigh or relief this year.

In India about 44 per cent pf the total food production is dependent on rain-fed farming. South-west monsoon during the months between June to September brings 80 per cent annual rainfall. Less rainfall followed by average winter rain added to the trouble of farmers. Normal rainfall is also sufficient for a good harvest which would benefit rural India. But with low rains, the rain-fed farmers have been reeling under the blistering sun.

Low rainfall in 2015 was completely a result of El Niño. In 2015, a rainfall deficit of 14 per cent was recorded main reason being El Nino, a weather phenomenon which increases warming in the Pacific Ocean leading to atmospheric changes thus reducing rainfall. In 2014, India recorded a monsoon rainfall deficit of 12 per cent. However, this time, Met experts have predicted a decline in the global warming factor and increase in La Nino factor which is cooler than average sea surface temperatures.